The problem is, in opposing staying, the Democats are not offering a view of how to deal wih the middle east, oil or secuity – the rise of Russia and Iran, and the dominant irrationality of Israel. The result is that we are all too likely follow the Republican strategy. Would any of the candidates break out of this box if elected?
In testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee this month, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Peter Pace uttered a “carefully worded” statement revealing that the Pentagon had no plans to fully withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq if legislation passes Congress mandating troop redeployment:
PACE: Sir, we have published no orders directing the planning for the overall withdrawal of forces. We do have ongoing replacements of forces, and we do change the size of the force over time so that that system is available to either plus-up or draw down, but we have published no orders saying come up with a complete plan for total drawdown.
NPR investigated Pace’s statements and found one scenario being considered within the Pentagon would maintain a strong U.S. military presence in Iraq for several decades into the future.
This so-called “lily pad” strategy entails keeping a “series of military installations around Iraq,” with tens of thousands of U.S. troops remaining in the country for as long as a few decades:
[W]hat it essentially envisions is a series of military installations around Iraq, maybe five or six of them, a total of maybe 30-40 thousand U.S. troops in Iraq for a long period of time, lasting, maybe a few decades. And the idea is that these bases will be somewhat hermetically sealed, that U.S. military forces won’t be leaving them, they won’t be conducting presence patrols and the patrols they conduct now. Ground convoys won’t be driving into them.
Airplanes will be essentially landing in to deliver supplies and these sort of lily pads will be in various strategic areas in Iraq … And that will enable the U.S. military to maintain a presence in the country, perhaps…for a few decades.
The Pentagon’s goal with the lily pads is to preserve U.S. interests in Iraq for years to come “in the event that Congress or the administration pushes this [withdrawal plan] forward.” As NPR details, those interests are at least three-fold: 1) Training Iraq forces, 2) Preserving economic interests, as “Iraq obviously [sits] on the second largest reserve of oil in the world,” and 3) Providing a U.S. military “presence” to deter Iran and Turkey from “getting involved” after withdrawal.
While 60 percent of Americans are calling for a withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq, the Pentagon is instead making preparations for an unending occupying presence.
Source: Think Progress
Doug,
I agree with your overall concern, but you are drawing some incorrect conclusions.
Someone, who doesn’t understand the military, must have used the word “orders” in a question. Orders are commands, not plans, they have a basis in the Consitution and Title 10 USC. There could be an execution order to a plan. There surely are no orders for long term stays in the mideast, either.
I am sure there are plans for both, and other realistically possible or high-risk scenarios as well.
I’ll buy that 60% of the US wants us out of the mideast. 99% of the members of the military do also (well, maybe not in the Navy, there are some nice ports there.)
The point is that the military is paid to plan to be able to execute what the nation might tell them to do, not what they would like to have happen.
Nobody has come up with a resonable alternative on how to deal with the mideast and security other than let it fester, or the neocons’ (apparently unsuccessful) “go in there depose the despots and create democracies.”
Have you read “What Went Wrong” by Bernard Lewis? Doesn’t seem like an environment where a Marshall Plan type strategy would be any more successful than it was with the USSR, or France at best.
Noel
P.S. Ron Paul is sure “out there,” isn’t he?
NG
P.P.S.
The military is sure that plans that are known to people who might will oppose them, don’t work as well as those that are a surprise. I am sure that applies to “lily pad plans,” as well.