Notes Oct 23 2008

October 24, 2008 § Leave a comment

9:22 am  Roubini video

10:13 m our stanford converation yesterday.

Notes from the meeting.
on the current financial crisis.
We started with a discussion of plausible scenarios.
http://dougcarmichael.com/politicalscenarios2006.html
These helped set the scene from which  the financial industry will evolve.
We then turned to the new economics  time line and spent half an hour discussing it and adding some of what we thought missing.
We talked about "cycles," The preoccupation with which  reinforces the quantitative as contrasted to cultural perspectives on economics.  And induces the hynotic view that what went down will come up. Not necessarily.
We then discussed the constant pattern since the renaissance of integrating status, states, money and technology. This pattern persists through Fascism and Communism, which both failed, but we still have the problem. That is, there is lots of continuity through WW1 and 2 to the present dilemma.
The idea that in the West after The breakup of Rome, the material remains of which provided the early "capital" (from "cap, " head,  as in breeding cattle)  for trade and cash flow establishing the patterns of trade.
The result was to create a mix of traders, craftsmen and towns in tension with the concentrating power of the large controllers of land  as they were becoming princes, and later kings. This pattern, of merchant vs. king, created a tension and interstices for opportunity that was not replicated in other parts of the world, such as India and China, where trade and power were one and the same.
With The buildup of wealth came the question of class differentiation and who benefited?
And the bansk took the merchant’s wealth and lent it to kings for armies to finance campaigns with spoils.
We then looked at The parallel between 1929 and now with a strong tendency of many people now to see this as fateful recurrence and miss the details of difference. This led to on to discuss how colonialisms were transformed into a neocon version of old exploitation but with a stronger hand for local elites who joined in the neocon "globalization" perspectives on causes of wealth and models of how to govern.
We then started to look at alternative to the current "crisis".  We talked about how a whole epoch is defined by certain language. In our case "political economy" which replaced  the Christian drama of the soul and heaven. So the question is, what large frame could be nest?
we then looked at some aspect q the cement situation. The rise of the financial sector and its dependence on computations and computing. This is seen hot as 1, new pattern  but an amplification of old ones.
This led to a discussion of growth and a recall of Aristotle’s "we can have growth without development, and development without growth." We discussed how growth is necessary  to the inevitable demands of the exponential growth required by a debt based society.
We got wonderfully confused on the sequence of Presidents. The real order is
Johnson 64-69
Nixon 69-74
Ford 74-77
Carts 77-80
Reagan 81-88
Bush I 89-83
Clinton 93-00
Bush 2 00-08
Then the came the bubbles-silicon, stocks, oil, Agriculture and housing. This led to a discussion of technology as an amplifier of computation and the dependency of the current financial crisis on technology, and technologies lack of dialog about consequences.
The financial system and its political connections has never been more revealed. This creates the possibility of real knowledge and a desire for change.
"green Technology is too loaded with baggage (green equals no jobs) to describe adequate future alternatives. Doug’s GardenWorld lies in the wings. www.dougcarmichael.com/GWP.html
Freeman Dyson has described the 5000 green of plant domestications, 5000 years of grey civilization based on concrete, stone and armies, and now, with nanotech and biotech, the possibility opens for a new green civilization.
Next meeting we will pick up from ehre and look more in detail and the current state of the crisis.

 

12:04 pm The Washington Post editorial meeting. To me this looks awkward. People can’t see each other, it is cluttered, no use of projected image or any use of he wall space to set context. Everything relies on the clutter of the papers.

Meeting

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